Inter Milan’s Champions League path becomes steeper

After the Arsenal setback, the road to the last 16 looks longer and tougher

The defeat suffered at San Siro against Arsenal has significantly complicated Inter Milan’s journey in the Champions League. 

The setback against the Gunners has pushed Cristian Chivu’s side away from the comfort zone of the top eight, making a direct place in the round of 16 increasingly unlikely.

Even a potential victory away at Borussia Dortmund may not be enough to secure automatic qualification. 

According to Football Meet Data, the numbers clearly point toward a playoff scenario rather than a straight passage to the knockout stage.

Statistics favour an extra hurdle for Inter Milan

The data leaves little room for optimism regarding direct qualification. Inter Milan still retain a mathematical chance, but it is slim:

• 11% probability of reaching the round of 16 directly
• 89% probability of having to go through the two-legged playoff

In short, the Champions League journey for Inter Milan is far more likely to require an additional step before the knockout rounds truly begin.

Expected final position in the League phase

The loss to Arsenal has already pushed Inter Milan outside the top eight, pending the remaining fixtures. Based on Football Meet Data projections, the most probable finishing positions for the Nerazzurri are:

• 15th or 16th place in the league standings

A ranking that would inevitably lead to the playoff round, with no margin for error.

Possible playoff opponents

If Inter Milan are forced into the playoffs, the data suggests a likely matchup against Marseille, with an 8.7% probability of facing the French side. 

Close behind is PSV Eindhoven, another possible obstacle on the road to the last 16.

And the irony of fate could strike again: should Inter Milan successfully navigate the playoffs, there is a 16.4% chance of meeting Arsenal once more in the round of 16.

For now, Inter Milan must regroup, focus on Dortmund, and prepare for a Champions League path that is no longer straight, but winding and unforgiving.

Source: Fcinter1908